In April and May 2011, commissioned by the Körber Foundation, TNS Emnid conducted telephone interviews with 405 leading representatives from the media, science, politics (including 62 members of the German Bundestag) and industry.
- Nearly 40 % of all the interviewees (almost half of those in politics) have never been to Asia professionally. Nevertheless, the German elites feel comparatively well informed about developments in the Far East – even better than about the situation in eastern Europe.
- The rise of Asia is an opportunity for Germany. Asia is very important as a sales market, trading partner and financially strong investor, buyer of companies and government bonds in Europe, but it is also a producer of greenhouse gases and a competitor for the development of scarce resources.
- China will play by far the biggest political and economic role for Germany and Europe in the future. India and Japan, by comparison, are of only secondary importance, while Indonesia is hardly perceived as being a significant factor.
- China is seen by the majority as a competitor. In the view of the interviewees, the preferred partners for Germany are mainly the democracies India, Japan and Indonesia. The Chinese model of authoritarian state capitalism will not assert itself globally. On the contrary: As prosperity increases, Asia will also become more democratic.
- A collaborative partnership with Asia is regarded as necessary in order to meet global challenges such as climate change or the stability of the financial markets. However, the interviewees are sceptical as to whether such cooperation based on partnership is feasible as Asia is considered by the majority to be the global political rival of the West. The international influence of the USA and Europe will decrease; the West and Asia will compete for global supremacy.
- Europe should react to the rise of Asia by collaborating more closely with the countries there and by becoming more involved diplomatically in Asia. Climate change and international financial markets are topics of paramount importance in this context. Closing ranks with the USA or Russia is not a workable answer to the rise of Asia. Appearing predominantly as a trading power is equally insufficient.
- Germany should focus on a common EU policy for Asia. However, those whose work take them most frequently to Asia are in favour of giving priority to bilateral relations.
- Conflicts between the USA and China in the Middle East are becoming more frequent. A new version of the Cold War – this time between the USA and China – is, however, considered improbable.
www.koerber-stiftung.de/en/survey-asia.html
How the German Elites see Asia
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